Year of Award

2024

Document Type

Dissertation

Degree Type

Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

Degree Name

Systems Ecology

Department or School/College

W.A. Franke College of Forestry

Committee Chair

Solomon Z. Dobrowski

Commitee Members

Laurie Yung, Sean A. Parks, Phil Higuera, John Abatzoglou, Douglas Brinkerhoff

Keywords

climate adaptation, climate exposure, climate impacts, novel climates, spatial climate analogs, spatial modeling

Abstract

Climate change requires that we adapt to the many impacts that are already unavoidable. To adapt, institutions and managers need to be able to anticipate how ecosystems are likely to respond to the observed and projected changes in climate. This dissertation explores spatial climate analogs for projecting climate change exposure and impacts to ecological systems, and for communicating climate impacts to diverse audiences. Chapter 1 summarizes the current state of knowledge about spatial climate analogs, and identifies areas for further research. Chapter 2 compares the skill and impact projections of analog impact models, to that of two commonly used empirical models, generalized linear regression and random forest. Chapter 3 applies analog impact models to project climate impacts to Oregon vegetation in a co-production process with land managers. This work advances our understanding of climate impact projection methods, and practices producing climate science that is useful for climate adaptation.

Available for download on Saturday, January 17, 2026

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© Copyright 2024 Svetlana Valeryevna Yegorova