Year of Award
2024
Document Type
Dissertation
Degree Type
Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)
Degree Name
Systems Ecology
Department or School/College
W.A. Franke College of Forestry
Committee Chair
Solomon Z. Dobrowski
Commitee Members
Laurie Yung, Sean A. Parks, Phil Higuera, John Abatzoglou, Douglas Brinkerhoff
Keywords
climate adaptation, climate exposure, climate impacts, novel climates, spatial climate analogs, spatial modeling
Abstract
Climate change requires that we adapt to the many impacts that are already unavoidable. To adapt, institutions and managers need to be able to anticipate how ecosystems are likely to respond to the observed and projected changes in climate. This dissertation explores spatial climate analogs for projecting climate change exposure and impacts to ecological systems, and for communicating climate impacts to diverse audiences. Chapter 1 summarizes the current state of knowledge about spatial climate analogs, and identifies areas for further research. Chapter 2 compares the skill and impact projections of analog impact models, to that of two commonly used empirical models, generalized linear regression and random forest. Chapter 3 applies analog impact models to project climate impacts to Oregon vegetation in a co-production process with land managers. This work advances our understanding of climate impact projection methods, and practices producing climate science that is useful for climate adaptation.
Recommended Citation
Yegorova, Svetlana Valeryevna, "EXPLORING SPATIAL CLIMATE ANALOGS FOR CLIMATE IMPACT PROJECTION, ADAPTATION, AND COMMUNICATION" (2024). Graduate Student Theses, Dissertations, & Professional Papers. 12428.
https://scholarworks.umt.edu/etd/12428
© Copyright 2024 Svetlana Valeryevna Yegorova