Institute for Tourism and Recreation Research
This report presents the development of a Montana tourism forecasting model. We forecast not only annual nonresident visitors to the state, but also forecast recreation visits to both Yellowstone and Glacier National Parks. Monthly data between 1992 and 2014 are used in a General to Specific Modeling approach to establish regression coefficients that are then used to ex post forecast 2015-2017, and ex ante forecast 2018-2020 for Montana and 2018-2019 for the National Parks. The forecast models perform well and better than base comparisons using Naïve 1 and Naïve 2 methods as evaluated by Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE). Monthly forecasted values may be interactively viewed in relationship to previous years’ trends on ITRR’s interactive websites for Montana nonresident visitors and both National Parks.
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