Journal of Geophysical Research : Earth Surface
American Geophysical Union
Atmospheric, oceanic, and subglacial forcing scenarios from the Sea-level Response tovIce Sheet Evolution (SeaRISE) project are applied to six three-dimensional thermomechanical ice-sheet models to assess Antarctic ice sheet sensitivity over a 500 year timescale and to inform future modeling and field studies. Results indicate (i) growth with warming, except within low-latitude basins (where inland thickening is outpaced by marginal thinning); (ii) mass loss with enhanced sliding (with basins dominated by high driving stresses affected more than basins with low-surface-slope streaming ice); and (iii) mass loss with enhanced ice shelf melting (with changes in West Antarctica dominating the signal due to its marine setting and extensive ice shelves; cf. minimal impact in the Terre Adelie, George V, Oates, and Victoria Land region of East Antarctica). Ice loss due to dynamic changes associated with enhanced sliding and/or subshelf melting exceeds the gain due to increased precipitation. Furthermore, differences in results between and within basins as well as the controlling impact of sub-shelf melting on ice dynamics highlight the need for improved understanding of basal conditions, grounding-zone processes, ocean-ice interactions, and the numerical representation of all three.
ice sheets, climate change
Nowicki, Sophie; Bindschadler, Robert A.; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Aschwanden, Andy; Bueler, Ed; Choi, Hyeungu; Fastook, Jim; Granzow, Glen; Greve, Ralf; Gutowski, Gail; Herzfeld, Ute; Jackson, Charles; Johnson, Jesse; Khroulev, Constantine; Larour, Eric; Levermann, Anders; Lipscomb, William; Martin, Maria A.; Morlighem, Mathieu; Parizek, Byron R.; Pollard, David; Price, Stephen F.; Ren, Diandong; Rignot, Eric; Saito, Fuyuki; Sato, Tatsuru; Seddik, Hakime; Seroussi, Helene; Takahashi, Kunio; Walker, Ryan; and Wang, Wei Li, "Insights Into Spatial Sensitivities of Ice Mass Response to Environmental Change from the SeaRISE Ice Sheet Modeling Project I : Antarctica" (2013). Computer Science Faculty Publications. 21.