Robert A. Bindschadler, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MarylandFollow
Sophie Nowicki, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland
Ayako Abe-Ouchi, University of Tokyo - Kashiwa, Chiba, JapanFollow
Andy Aschwanden, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AlaskaFollow
Hyeungu Choi, Sigma Space Corporation, Lanham, Maryland
JIm Fastook, University of Maine, Orono, Maine
Glen Granzow, University of Montana - MissoulaFollow
Ralf Greve, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, JapanFollow
Gail Gutowski, University of Texas at AustinFollow
Ute Herzfeld, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado
Charles Jackson, University of Texas at AustinFollow
Jesse Johnson, University of Montana - MissoulaFollow
Constantine Khroulev, University of Toyko - Kashiwa, Chiba, JapanFollow
Anders Levermann, Potsdam University, Potsdam, Germany
William H. Lipscomb, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New MexicoFollow
Maria A. Martin, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, GermanyFollow
Mathieu Morlighem, University of California - Irvine, Irvine, CaliforniaFollow
Byron R. Parizek, Pen State DuBois, DuBois, PennsylvaniaFollow
David Pollard, Pennsylvania State University - University Park, PAFollow
Stephen F. Price, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New MexicoFollow
Diandong Ren, Curtin University of Technology, Perth, AustraliaFollow
Fuyuki Saito, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, JapanFollow
Tatsuru Sato, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan
Hakime Seddik, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan
Helene Seroussi, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, California
Kunio Takahashi, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan
Ryan Walker, University of Maryland, College Park, MarylandFollow
Wei Li Wang, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MarylandFollow

Document Type


Publication Title

Journal of Glaciology


International Glaciological Society

Publication Date







Computer Sciences


Ten ice-sheet models are used to study sensitivity of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to prescribed changes of surface mass balance, sub-ice-shelf melting and basal sliding. Results exhibit a large range in projected contributions to sea-level change. In most cases, the ice volume above flotation lost is linearly dependent on the strength of the forcing. Combinations of forcings can be closely approximated by linearly summing the contributions from single forcing experiments, suggesting that nonlinear feedbacks are modest. Our models indicate that Greenland is more sensitive than Antarctica to likely atmospheric changes in temperature and precipitation, while Antarctica is more sensitive to increased ice-shelf basal melting. An experiment approximating the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s RCP8.5 scenario produces additional first-century contributions to sea level of 22.3 and 8.1cm from Greenland and Antarctica, respectively, with a range among models of 62 and 14 cm, respectively. By 200 years, projections increase to 53.2 and 26.7 cm, respectively, with ranges of 79 and 43 cm. Linear interpolation of the sensitivity results closely approximates these projections, revealing the relative contributions of the individual forcings on the combined volume change and suggesting that total ice-sheet response to complicated forcings over 200 years can be linearized.


ice sheets, climate change