Bachelor of Arts
School or Department
Political Science – International Relations and Comparative Politics
Dean Brock Tessman
Faculty Mentor Department
Political Warfare, Interventions, Preparation of the Environment, United States, Russian Federation, Key Variables
This research paper was inspired by a desire to see the United States (U.S.) have continued success in the 21st century. The problem that spurred this research was the realization that the U.S. has an opportunistic, short-term, military centric, foreign policy strategy. I believe that in the 21st century, a steady state, balanced, long-term strategy will ensure continued success. This research paper posits that an already strong networked opposition, a repertoire of resistance, and physical infrastructure are both jointly necessary and sufficient for a successful intervention. To test for this pattern, I first explore a common variable attributed to determining the likelihood of success in interventions: Corruption. This is done by analyzing corruption in Afghanistan (2001-present), Vietnam (1955-1975), and the Baltics (1991-2014). This analysis, as well as table 1.1, illustrate the absence of a pattern: corruption is not an effective variable for decision makers to analyze during pre-intervention planning. Following the analysis of corruption, the research paper moves into the three key variables identified above. The first case study focuses on Poland (1979-1989) during the Solidarity Movement. The analysis of Poland illustrates high favorability, or advantageous marks, for the three key variables. This resulted in one of the best examples of successful U.S. political warfare during the Cold War. The next case study focuses on Cuba during the Bay of Pigs and Operation Mongoose. This analysis shows the reader the result of all three key variables being unfavorable, or disadvantageous, to the foreign actor: defeat. The final case study focuses on Ukraine (1991-2014). This is by far the most important case study as it illustrates the success of the Russian Federation due to two factors: the three key variables were favorable/advantageous and the Russian Federation, over time, influenced these variables to create a higher likelihood of success. This research paper also includes a limited section on recommendations for the U.S. in the 21st century as well as a reflection of shortcomings with this project.
Honors College Research Project
Campbell, Braeden J., "Successful Interventions: Identifying and Influencing Key Variables" (2017). Undergraduate Theses and Professional Papers. 180.
© Copyright 2017 Braeden J. Campbell