Year of Award

2009

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Type

Master of Science (MS)

Degree Name

Forestry

Department or School/College

College of Forestry and Conservation

Committee Chair

Carl A. Seielstad

Commitee Members

LLoyd P. Queen, Charles G. Palmer

Keywords

climate change, fire, North American Regional Reanalysis, Northern Rockies, precipitation, Remote Automated Weather Stations, season ending event

Publisher

University of Montana

Abstract

Abstract. Fire season precipitation trends were investigated using daily rainfall data obtained from seventy-six Remote Automated Weather Stations (RAWS) across Idaho and Montana for the period 1982 to 2006. Missing and erroneous values from each station were corrected with gridded data from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), creating temporally consistent, comparable records. Monthly precipitation was then analyzed during the core fire season (July-Sept) and biweekly precipitation was analyzed for the start of fire season (June). The end of the season was examined using October precipitation data and through identification of season slowing rain events (SSE). These analyses reveal significant changes in precipitation amount, timing and spatial autocorrelation at stations. While June precipitation has generally increased during the period, core fire season is getting drier and longer. Season slowing events are occurring 15 days later, on average, than they did in 1982, while summer rainfall is decreasing at 97% of stations with clusters of significant change focused in the central Idaho mountains and in west-central Montana. The observed trends in precipitation paired with later season slowing events could result in more active fire seasons in the Northern Rockies and may explain some of the changes in fire season that have been previously attributed to earlier Spring snowmelt and warmer temperatures.

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© Copyright 2009 Ann Marie Hadlow