Presentation Type
Oral Presentation
Category
STEM (science, technology, engineering, mathematics)
Abstract/Artist Statement
Title: Assessing the Vulnerability of At-Risk Amphibians to Regional Climate Change
Purpose: Climate change threatens the persistence of many species worldwide. However, the effects of climate change on a particular species or in a particular location vary based on many factors. Some amphibians may benefit from climate changes while others will not, so understanding the factors associated with higher risks of detrimental effects will allow decision-makers to focus on protecting particularly vulnerable species and populations. Unfortunately, many amphibian species are not well-studied so ecologists are missing key details about their habitat use or life cycle making typical methods for studying their vulnerability unfeasible.
Methods: Climate change vulnerability assessment (CCVA) is a tool for understanding how the effects of climate change might act differently on species or populations, and allows researchers to rank their relative vulnerabilities to future climate predictions. We performed a CCVA for amphibian species of greatest conservation need in seven states in the North Central US (Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Kansas). We chose to assess the species at the management-scale, and focused on a group of species which are considered at-risk, but data deficient. First, we searched the scientific literature for past research that has used CCVA or closely related analyses to study vulnerability of animals or plants to climate changes. We looked for key attributes that were important for vulnerability and potentially available for amphibians. We developed a list of characteristics of species or populations that are considered important to climate change vulnerability based on ecological theory and past work, and combined these characteristics with measures of predicted climate change in the coming decades. We scored 32 amphibian species of the North Central region based on these characteristics and their predicted level of exposure to environmental changes. Finally, we ranked the species according to their predicted vulnerability.
Originality: CCVAs have been used to describe the relative vulnerability of species at the local, regional, or global level, often focusing on broad groups of organisms or one particular species in a variety of habitats. Amphibians possess many characteristics that make them unique among animals. Some of these characteristics are not accounted for in past CCVAs, or the CCVA analysis was broad enough (i.e., at the species range-level) to make management recommendations difficult. We used characteristics of amphibian species or populations identified through past research and ecological theory to predict the vulnerability of these under-studied organisms in the absence of detailed information about their ecology, at a scale which will provide useful conclusions for wildlife managers.
Significance: Our work represents a useful approach to identify regional vulnerability of a group of amphibians already thought to be at-risk in seven US states. The relative ranking of species of greatest conservation need will allow those responsible for conservation decision-making to better understand which avenues to focus conservation actions on, and to hopefully improve the outcome of imperiled species conservation measures in the region.
Mentor Name
Lisa Eby
Personal Statement
The significance of better understanding the risk of climate change to plants and animals is difficult to overstate. Our current age has been dubbed the “Anthropocene” by some scientists, owing to the vast impact humans have had on the climate and major ecological systems. To prevent catastrophic biodiversity loss across the globe, we must better understand which species are at the greatest risk from the changes to come, and better target our resources to mitigate those risks. In the case of charismatic species such as polar bears or economically critical ones like pollinators, scientists have done a fantastic job in getting the word out and getting the public to understand the risks climate change poses. Unfortunately amphibians tend to be overlooked in many of these conversations. They tend to be small, hard to see, and not very well understood. They may spend most of their lives underground or underwater, or in places where humans typically aren’t looking. Unfortunately, according to the International Union for the Conservation of Nature, they are also the most endangered class of vertebrates on Earth, due at least in part to the effects of human-caused climate change. To me, this is a shame. Amphibians have existed far longer than mammals, are massively successful on a geologic time scale, and are fascinating in their own quiet way. Much of my professional career has been focused on better understanding these unassuming harbingers of the climate crisis. This current work leverages new tools only developed in the last decade or so, and applies them to amphibians in our region which are potentially at risk from the effects of climate change. If I can contribute in a small way to understanding how those little-known animals can be better prioritized for conservation action, this work will be important and something I can be proud of.
Hinderer oral presentation video
Assessing the Vulnerability of At-Risk Amphibians to Regional Climate Change
UC 326
Title: Assessing the Vulnerability of At-Risk Amphibians to Regional Climate Change
Purpose: Climate change threatens the persistence of many species worldwide. However, the effects of climate change on a particular species or in a particular location vary based on many factors. Some amphibians may benefit from climate changes while others will not, so understanding the factors associated with higher risks of detrimental effects will allow decision-makers to focus on protecting particularly vulnerable species and populations. Unfortunately, many amphibian species are not well-studied so ecologists are missing key details about their habitat use or life cycle making typical methods for studying their vulnerability unfeasible.
Methods: Climate change vulnerability assessment (CCVA) is a tool for understanding how the effects of climate change might act differently on species or populations, and allows researchers to rank their relative vulnerabilities to future climate predictions. We performed a CCVA for amphibian species of greatest conservation need in seven states in the North Central US (Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Kansas). We chose to assess the species at the management-scale, and focused on a group of species which are considered at-risk, but data deficient. First, we searched the scientific literature for past research that has used CCVA or closely related analyses to study vulnerability of animals or plants to climate changes. We looked for key attributes that were important for vulnerability and potentially available for amphibians. We developed a list of characteristics of species or populations that are considered important to climate change vulnerability based on ecological theory and past work, and combined these characteristics with measures of predicted climate change in the coming decades. We scored 32 amphibian species of the North Central region based on these characteristics and their predicted level of exposure to environmental changes. Finally, we ranked the species according to their predicted vulnerability.
Originality: CCVAs have been used to describe the relative vulnerability of species at the local, regional, or global level, often focusing on broad groups of organisms or one particular species in a variety of habitats. Amphibians possess many characteristics that make them unique among animals. Some of these characteristics are not accounted for in past CCVAs, or the CCVA analysis was broad enough (i.e., at the species range-level) to make management recommendations difficult. We used characteristics of amphibian species or populations identified through past research and ecological theory to predict the vulnerability of these under-studied organisms in the absence of detailed information about their ecology, at a scale which will provide useful conclusions for wildlife managers.
Significance: Our work represents a useful approach to identify regional vulnerability of a group of amphibians already thought to be at-risk in seven US states. The relative ranking of species of greatest conservation need will allow those responsible for conservation decision-making to better understand which avenues to focus conservation actions on, and to hopefully improve the outcome of imperiled species conservation measures in the region.