Presentation Type
Oral Presentation
Category
STEM (science, technology, engineering, mathematics)
Abstract/Artist Statement
Uncertainties about population dynamics may hamper the ability of state agencies and commissions to make informed wildlife management decisions. In hunting district 121, Montana, bull elk harvest has declined since 2012. Minimum counts suggest populations have been stable; however, it’s unknown if these counts reflect actual abundance and there are no vital rate data available for the region. Due to these uncertainties, Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks developed an adaptive management project to address data gaps and uncertainties. From 2022-2025, we GPS collared 124 adult females, 18 adult males, and 185 neonate or 6-month-old calves. Across all years, the average adult pregnancy rate was 84% (n = 122). Based on initial elk survival estimates through 2024, adult female survival was 0.891 (95% CI = 0.832 – 0.954) and adult male survival was 0.571 (95% CI = 0.301 – 1.0) with leading causes of mortality for all adults including harvest (n = 5/15) and mountain lions (n = 3/15). Calf survival was 0.537 (95% CI = 0.377 - 0.764) with leading causes of mortality including mountain lions (n = 10/27) and black bears (n = 6/27). We combined these population estimates with information about carnivores, habitat, and harvest into an IPM and initial results indicate the population is stable but has high bull harvest. Ultimately, this IPM will provide the analytical tool needed to inform management decisions and select management prescriptions to achieve elk population size objectives in an adaptive management framework.
Mentor Name
Joshua Millspaugh
Using adaptive management to understand elk population dynamics in northwest Montana
UC 332
Uncertainties about population dynamics may hamper the ability of state agencies and commissions to make informed wildlife management decisions. In hunting district 121, Montana, bull elk harvest has declined since 2012. Minimum counts suggest populations have been stable; however, it’s unknown if these counts reflect actual abundance and there are no vital rate data available for the region. Due to these uncertainties, Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks developed an adaptive management project to address data gaps and uncertainties. From 2022-2025, we GPS collared 124 adult females, 18 adult males, and 185 neonate or 6-month-old calves. Across all years, the average adult pregnancy rate was 84% (n = 122). Based on initial elk survival estimates through 2024, adult female survival was 0.891 (95% CI = 0.832 – 0.954) and adult male survival was 0.571 (95% CI = 0.301 – 1.0) with leading causes of mortality for all adults including harvest (n = 5/15) and mountain lions (n = 3/15). Calf survival was 0.537 (95% CI = 0.377 - 0.764) with leading causes of mortality including mountain lions (n = 10/27) and black bears (n = 6/27). We combined these population estimates with information about carnivores, habitat, and harvest into an IPM and initial results indicate the population is stable but has high bull harvest. Ultimately, this IPM will provide the analytical tool needed to inform management decisions and select management prescriptions to achieve elk population size objectives in an adaptive management framework.