Estimation and Prediction of Complex Systems: Progress in Weather and Climate

Document Type

Presentation Abstract

Presentation Date

4-25-2011

Abstract

The use of observations and models to predict the future state of a system is a hallmark of the scientific method that often has practical application. As a result, estimation and prediction are central pursuits across a vast range of disciplines, including the physical, biological, and social sciences; engineering; and finance. In many cases the system of interest is composed of a large number of interacting components that render estimation and prediction difficult. This challenge motivates this talk in which I will review essential aspects of, and the basic theory for, estimating and predicting complex systems. One such system, Earth's atmosphere, will be used to illustrate techniques that deal with complexity. The success of these methods for reducing uncertainty in weather forecasts will be contrasted against a failure to reduce uncertainty in climate-change forecasts. This contrast motivates a mathematically based reconsideration of model formulation and calibration for complex systems.

Additional Details

The Department of Mathematical Sciences is pleased to present a special Colloquium talk for Math Awareness Month.

Sponsored by a gift from Dr. Frank Gilfeather '64.

Monday, 25 April 2011
3:10 p.m. in Math 103
4:00 p.m. Refreshments in Math Lounge 109

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