Estimating survival of dormant plants using mark-recapture methods

Martha Ellis

Document Type

Presentation Abstract

Presentation Date

12-6-2011

Abstract

Plant ecologists are interested in estimating survival and other demographic rates for dormant plants. When dormant, plants may be alive but unobservable for one or more years. When individuals are alive but unobservable, separating mortality from dormancy can be difficult. Recently, researchers have proposed using multistate mark-recapture models to estimate survival and transition rates of plants that have dormant states. We used a simulation approach to explore the ability of a multistate mark-recapture model and two restricted models to estimate survival and transition rates for three plant species with frequent dormancy. All of the methods we considered produced biased estimates for survival and transition probabilities. Furthermore, for survival estimates, the pattern of survival across states was consistent for all three species regardless of the pattern in true survival. Our results suggest that estimates from current methods should be interpreted with caution and additional data on individual fates may be required.

Additional Details

Presentation of Master’s Project

Master’s Committee:
Solomon Harrar, Chair (Mathematical Sciences),
David Patterson (Mathematical Sciences),
Paul Lukacs (Wildlife Biology)

Tuesday, December 6, 2011
3:10 pm in Math 211

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