Relative Likelihood Comparisons: Heuristics, Biases and Fallacies

Document Type

Presentation Abstract

Presentation Date

2-11-2013

Abstract

In this lecture, the heuristics, biases and fallacies associated with relative likelihood comparisons (e.g., which sequence of coin flips is less likely to occur: HHTHTT or TTTTTH) will be presented. The lecture begins, first, with an overview of Tversky and Kahneman’s heuristics and biases program (of the late 1960s and early 1970s) — with a particular emphasis on the representativeness heuristic. Second, the alternative theories, frameworks and models that mathematics education researchers used to account for incorrect, inconsistent, incomprehensible relative likelihood comparisons (during the 1990s and late 2000s) will be discussed. Third, the more recent developments to the heuristics and biases program, which have largely and inexplicably been ignored by the mathematics education community, will shed new light on unintended comparisons of relative likelihood. Lastly, the lecture will focus on an emerging area of research that uses logical fallacies (e.g., the fallacy of composition, the appeal to ignorance and others) instead of heuristics and biases to account for prospective math teachers' relative likelihood comparisons. Ultimately, this lecture is designed to provide the background for a lively discussion on whether ACCBDCAADB or CCCBBBBBBB is least likely to be the answer key (with four possible answers: A, B, C and D) for a 10 question multiple choice math quiz.

Additional Details

Monday, 11 February 2013
3:10 p.m. in Math 103
4:00 p.m. Refreshments in Math Lounge 109

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