ANALYSIS OF COVID-19 IN RURAL AMERICA

Author

Ian Gabriel Derickson

Year of Award

2023

Document Type

Dissertation

Degree Type

Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

Degree Name

Mathematics

Department or School/College

Department of Mathematical Sciences

Committee Chair

Leonid Kalachev

Commitee Members

Johnathan Bardsley, Javier Perez Alvaro, Frederick Peck, Douglas Brinkerhoff

Keywords

COVID-19, Dynamical Systems, SIR Models

Abstract

The outbreak of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) in Wuhan, China and subsequent global pandemic illustrated the need of accurate forecasting and a greater understanding of the underlying dynamics of infectious diseases.

In this dissertation, we examine the six most populous towns in the State of Montana through the lens of the classic SIR model. With this, we show that the six towns in question exhibit similar disease dynamics and population behavior within each wave. Furthermore, we conduct analysis on the age demographics of COVID-19 cases and deaths. This analysis corroborates the findings of the SIR model fits, in that the age demographics of cases, deaths, and case fatality rates are remarkably similar across all six towns, lending credence to the hypothesis that the dynamics of infectious diseases are fundamentally the same within rural towns in America.

Recommended Citation

Derickson, Ian Gabriel, "ANALYSIS OF COVID-19 IN RURAL AMERICA" (2023). Graduate Student Theses, Dissertations, & Professional Papers. 12135.
https://scholarworks.umt.edu/etd/12135