A RETROSPECTIVE ASSESSMENT OF POST-FIRE PLANTING IN THE US: ALIGNING ACTUAL AND OPTIMAL PLANTING SITES TO ADDRESS THE REFORESTATION GAP

Author

Lewis FallerFollow

Year of Award

2025

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Type

Master of Science (MS)

Degree Name

Forestry

Department or School/College

W.A. Franke College of Forestry and Conservation

Committee Chair

Solomon Dobrowski

Commitee Members

Alina Cansler Zachary Holden

Keywords

reforestation, spatial optimization, wildfire

Subject Categories

Forest Management

Abstract

The natural regeneration processes that maintain semi-arid North American conifer forests are being disrupted. Increasingly, large wildfires burn core areas beyond the typical seed dispersal range of surviving adult trees and even when seeds are present, climate conditions increasingly are unsuitable for conifer recruitment, establishment, and survival. The USDA Forest Service (USFS), mandated to maintain forest cover in response to harvest or disturbance, now faces a planting backlog of over 3.8 million acres. Here, we conduct a retrospective assessment (1986–2023) of USFS post-fire reforestation to evaluate (1) whether historical planting patterns align with the goal to close the national reforestation gap, while also assessing (2) the potential of spatial optimization tools to strengthen that alignment. To do this, we develop a quantitative framework to prioritize reforestation based on where planting is (1) necessary to maintain forest cover (i.e., where seed limitation prevents natural recovery), (2) likely to succeed (i.e., where climate can support establishment), and operationally feasible (i.e., proximity to roads). We then use spatial optimization to compare simulated plantings to historical USFS decisions. Whereas most sites the USFS planted after fires (56%) were in locations predicted to naturally regenerate, our simulations found sites in the same fires with lower seed availability (mean difference: 0.22) and natural regeneration potential (mean difference: 0.17). Our study exposes some of the trade-offs and constraints resource managers must navigate when making planting decisions and demonstrates the utility of a spatially optimized decision support framework for reforestation planning.

Recommended Citation

Faller, Lewis, "A RETROSPECTIVE ASSESSMENT OF POST-FIRE PLANTING IN THE US: ALIGNING ACTUAL AND OPTIMAL PLANTING SITES TO ADDRESS THE REFORESTATION GAP" (2025). Graduate Student Theses, Dissertations, & Professional Papers. 12590.
https://scholarworks.umt.edu/etd/12590