The 2016 Paris Accords: Does Structural Realism or Institutional Neoliberalism Best Explain Why States Have Signed onto the Accords?

Why did states ratify the 2016 Paris Climate Agreement? In this paper, I answer that question by testing two international relations theories: structural realism and institutional neoliberalism. I have chosen to use these two theories because they are diametrically opposed in their explanations of international relations. Structural realism says that due to the lack of a one-world government, conflicts will always be present in the world system. Conversely, institutional neoliberalism states that through inter-governmental institutions, such as the United Nations, the world system is working toward obtaining perpetual peace and prosperity. To test structural realism, I examine if weaker states band wagoned onto the Paris Accords because the great powers, China and the United States, supported the Accords. To do this, I look at the time frame it took states to ratify the Accords as well as the state’s power capabilities and see if there is a strong correlation. I also test if climate-vulnerable states ratified earlier than other states to address the collective action climate security problem. I do this by analyzing ratification dates and cross-compare to state ranking of climate insecurity. To test institutional neoliberalism, I examined states’ past participation in three previous UN environment treaties to see if states with a long record of involvement were the most likely to ratify. For all three tests conducted, I compiled and analyzed an original data set. I found the most support for my test on state bandwagoning onto the Paris Accords due to the influence of the great powers. Bandwagoning with the great powers had a stronger correlation than the climate-vulnerable countries being the quickest to ratify the Accords. The institutional neoliberalism test holds potential, but the structure of it was too limited to give a clear successful result compared to the structural realist test. The climate crisis is increasing in magnitude by the day and soon there will be no way to reverse any amount of the damage done by carbon emissions. The Paris Climate Agreement is the most comprehensive environmental treaty geared towards mitigating the effects of the climate crisis. Understanding state motives behind their cooperation is imperative if we want to understand the ways states will follow through with implementing policies and divine this and other important international issues.